Jobless Claims

With the release of the latest CPI and PPI data, inflation has increased month-to-month for the first time since March, marking the first rise in over seven months. The Federal Reserve has reiterated its goal of reducing inflation to a 2% target within a year. While this development doesn't necessarily indicate an imminent interest rate hike, it suggests that current rates may remain unchanged for an extended period. Earlier optimism about a potential rate cut by the end of the year has significantly diminished in light of recent inflation figures and economic data. However, Retail Sales data presents a more…

Big inflation reports for the coming week with both CPI and PPI on the schedule. We should expect the data to remain within expectations given the latest reports from both the PCE Index and GDP estimates. The Federal Reserve has still remained hawkish and the last rate decision the expectation is the current rates should maintain. However with the inflation being very close to the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate and the expected “soft landing” on the horizon. The outlook is optimistic for another round of rate cuts in future. Federal Reserve Rate DecisionIn the face of slowing inflation and…

This week, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation data was released, and the results met expectations. This, along with recent GDP estimates, employment reports, and personal income/spending figures, paints a stable economic picture. It suggests that we may be on track for the Federal Reserve’s next round of rate cuts. The Federal Reserve has consistently stated its 2% inflation target and current figures show inflation at 2.1%. This indicates that a 'soft landing' for the economy could be within reach. PCI Index Prices in the U.S. rose modestly in September, but not enough to suggest inflation is rekindling or to prevent…

This week saw relatively light activity, primarily focused on discussions with the Federal Reserve Board. The only truly notable report released was the Consumer Sentiment Report, which happily reported that sentiment had risen for the month of October. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book survey noted a slight decline in manufacturing activity. Consumer Sentiment (Final) Confidence among Republicans in a potential Donald Trump victory helped drive consumer sentiment to a six-month high less than two weeks before the U.S. presidential election. The University of Michigan reported on Friday that the initial October reading of consumer sentiment rose to 70.5,…

The release of last week's inflation data has left this week with very few significant data updates. The most important information will come from various Federal Reserve members speaking on different topics. They have consistently emphasized that they will closely monitor the data to decide whether further rate cuts are needed in their upcoming rate decision meeting. Much of the market is optimistic that rate cuts will continue. Additionally, several smaller retail sales data releases are expected soon, which will provide insight into the current strength of the economy. Retail Sales Retail sales increased 0.4% in September, with strength in…