Mortgage Rates

While CPI data has come in within expectations for current inflation, inflation remains much higher than in previous years. The rate is holding steady at 2.4%, which is above the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target.  There are sectors where cost has seen significant increase and has not been reflected in the CPI due to the more recent changes implemented by the Trump administration. Fuel costs, for example, have seen an upward year-over-year trend that has been exacerbated by the recent war in Iran. The Fed Beige Book and balance sheet have also shown steady growth and an upward trend as of…

The Non-farm Payroll figures are a strong indicator of the job market and showed a notable increase this quarter. However, this doesn’t necessarily indicate a significant shift in the job market as a whole, as certain sectors have experienced outsized impacts compared to others. JOLTs job openings data does support the increase in openings seen over the last quarter, though it is not among the largest indicators on the broader economic scale. Non-farm PayrollsThe +162,000 jobs was considerably stronger than the 31,000 average monthly gain over the preceding 12 months. Food services added 59K and local-government education added 42K, while…

The PCE Index has remained above the Federal Reserve’s target and continues to be the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure for tracking inflation. Although the latest reading was not significantly above expectations, when considered alongside a number of other factors, it could contribute to the potential for a rate increase, particularly as the PCE Index has repeatedly come in higher than expected in recent months. At the Jackson Hole Symposium, the Federal Reserve commented that it remains committed to bringing inflation back to its 2% target. The Fed additionally stated that it would no longer provide forward guidance on future rate…

The latest FOMC minutes reinforced the Federal Reserve’s continued focus on price stability, with policymakers voting to maintain the current federal funds rate for the time being. However, the path forward remains uncertain, particularly as persistent inflation continues to complicate the case for additional rate cuts. In fact, several policymakers have indicated greater concern about inflation and favored tighter monetary policy at the most recent meeting. With the more recent departure of former Fed Chair Jerome Powell, there is a lot of uncertainty about where the Federal Reserve will move under the current administration. There is also a lot of…

Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reported figures that were either entirely in line with expectations or just slightly below them. This does not set any new precedent for the potential of a rate increase from the Federal Reserve, as inflation is still rising, just at a largely expected rate. Retail sales have also shown signs of a slump compared to previous quarters, with gas prices and Amazon Prime Day among the primary culprits. This isn’t necessarily a broader indicator of overall economic health, but there is certainly pressure being felt from persistent inflation across…